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U.s. election 2022 polls: Who is ahead - Trump or Biden?

By The Visual and Data Journalism Squad
BBC News

Voters in America volition decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White Firm for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known equally Barack Obama'southward vice-president just has been in Usa politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will exist trying to approximate the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We'll be keeping track of those polls hither and trying to piece of work out what they can and can't tell us almost who will win the ballot.

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide as to how pop a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they're not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for case, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won virtually three one thousand thousand more votes than Donald Trump, just she still lost - that's considering the US uses an balloter college system, and then winning the most votes doesn't always win you the ballot.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in near national polls since the showtime of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-indicate lead on occasions.

Who'south ahead in national polls?

average voting intention based on individual polls

Skip chart

Date	BIDEN	TRUMP
Nov 02	52	44
Nov 02	52	44
Nov 02	52	44
Nov 02	52	44
Nov 01	52	44
November 01	52	44
Nov 01	52	44
Nov 01	52	44
Nov 01	52	44
Nov 01	52	44
Oct 31	52	44
Oct 31	52	44
Oct 31	52	44
October 31	52	44
October 31	52	44
Oct 30	52	43
Oct thirty	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 29	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
Oct 28	52	43
October 28	52	43
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
October 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 27	51	42
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 26	51	43
Oct 25	51	42
Oct 25	51	42
October 25	51	42
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 24	51	43
Oct 23	51	42
Oct 23	51	42
Oct 22	51	43
October 22	51	43
October 21	51	43
Oct 21	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
October xx	51	43
Oct twenty	51	43
Oct 20	51	43
October 19	52	42
Oct 19	52	42
October xix	52	42
October 19	52	42
October eighteen	52	42
October eighteen	52	42
Oct eighteen	52	42
Oct 18	52	42
Oct 17	52	42
Oct 17	52	42
Oct 17	52	42
Oct 16	52	42
Oct 16	52	42
Oct 15	52	42
October 15	52	42
Oct 15	52	42
Oct fourteen	52	42
Oct 14	52	42
Oct xiii	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct thirteen	53	42
Oct xiii	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 13	53	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 12	52	42
Oct 12	52	42
October 11	53	42
Oct 11	53	42
October x	52	42
Oct x	52	42
Oct 09	52	42
Oct 09	52	42
Oct 08	52	42
October 07	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
October 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
Oct 06	52	42
October 05	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 04	51	42
Oct 03	51	43
Oct 03	51	43
Oct 02	51	42
Oct 01	51	43
Oct 01	51	43
Oct 01	51	43
October 01	51	43
Sep thirty	51	43
Sep thirty	51	43
Sep 30	51	43
Sep 29	51	43
Sep 29	51	43
Sep 29	51	43
Sep 28	l	43
Sep 27	l	43
Sep 27	l	43
Sep 26	50	43
Sep 25	50	43
Sep 25	50	43
Sep 24	50	43
Sep 24	50	43
Sep 24	fifty	43
Sep 23	51	43
Sep 23	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 22	51	43
Sep 21	51	43
Sep 21	51	43
Sep 21	51	43
Sep 20	51	43
Sep 20	51	43
Sep 19	51	43
Sep 19	51	43
Sep xix	51	43
Sep eighteen	l	43
Sep 17	51	43
Sep xvi	51	43
Sep sixteen	51	43
Sep 16	51	43
Sep 15	l	43
Sep 15	50	43
Sep xv	50	43
Sep fifteen	fifty	43
Sep 14	51	43
Sep xiv	51	43
Sep 13	51	43
Sep 12	51	43
Sep 12	51	43
Sep eleven	51	43
Sep 10	51	43
Sep 10	51	43
Sep 09	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 08	51	43
Sep 07	fifty	42
Sep 06	50	42
Sep 06	l	42
Sep 05	51	43
Sep 04	51	42
Sep 04	51	42
Sep 03	51	42
Sep 02	51	43
Sep 02	51	43
Sep 01	l	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	50	42
Sep 01	l	42
Sep 01	l	42
Sep 01	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 31	l	42
Aug 31	50	42
Aug 30	50	41
Aug 30	fifty	41
Aug 29	51	42
Aug 28	51	43
Aug 28	51	43
Aug 27	51	43
Aug 26	50	43
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 25	50	42
Aug 25	fifty	42
Aug 24	l	42
Aug 23	l	42
Aug 22	l	42
Aug 21	50	42
Aug 20	50	42
Aug nineteen	fifty	42
Aug 18	50	42
Aug xviii	50	42
Aug xviii	50	42
Aug 17	50	42
Aug 16	fifty	42
Aug xv	fifty	42
Aug fifteen	50	42
Aug 14	fifty	42
Aug 14	50	42
Aug 13	50	41
Aug 12	50	42
Aug 12	fifty	42
Aug 11	fifty	42
Aug 11	l	42
Aug 11	l	42
Aug 11	50	42
Aug x	l	41
Aug 09	49	41
Aug 08	49	41
Aug 07	49	41
Aug 06	50	41
Aug 05	50	42
Aug 04	50	42
Aug 04	50	42
Aug 03	50	42
Aug 02	50	42
Aug 01	50	42
Jul 31	fifty	42
Jul 30	50	42
Jul 29	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 28	49	41
Jul 27	50	42
Jul 26	51	41
Jul 25	51	41
Jul 24	51	41
Jul 23	51	41
Jul 22	50	41
Jul 21	50	41
Jul 21	50	41
Jul 20	50	41
Jul nineteen	51	41
Jul eighteen	51	41
Jul 17	fifty	41
Jul xvi	fifty	41
Jul xv	50	41
Jul 15	50	41
Jul 14	l	twoscore
Jul fourteen	50	twoscore
Jul 13	51	40
Jul 12	51	40
Jul 12	51	forty
Jul 11	49	forty
Jul 10	49	twoscore
Jul 09	49	forty
Jul 08	49	40
Jul 07	50	41
Jul 07	50	41
Jul 06	49	41
Jul 05	49	40
Jul 04	49	forty
Jul 03	49	40
Jul 02	49	twoscore
Jul 01	50	41
Jun thirty	50	41
Jun 30	l	41
Jun xxx	50	41
Jun 29	50	41
Jun 28	49	41
Jun 27	50	xl
Jun 26	fifty	40
Jun 25	fifty	41
Jun 24	fifty	41
Jun 23	l	twoscore
Jun 23	l	40
Jun 22	50	41
Jun 22	50	41
Jun 21	l	41
Jun 20	50	41
Jun 19	fifty	41
Jun 18	51	41
Jun 17	fifty	41
Jun 16	50	41
Jun 16	fifty	41
Jun 15	49	41
Jun xiv	fifty	42
Jun 13	49	41
Jun 12	49	41
Jun xi	49	42
Jun x	49	42
Jun 09	49	42
Jun 08	49	42
Jun 07	49	42
Jun 06	49	42
Jun 05	49	42
Jun 04	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 03	49	42
Jun 02	48	41
Jun 02	48	41
Jun 01	48	42
Jun 01	48	42
May 31	48	42
May xxx	48	43
May 29	48	43
May 28	48	43
May 27	48	42
May 26	48	42
May 25	48	42
May 24	48	42
May 23	48	43
May 22	48	43
May 21	48	43
May 20	48	43
May 19	48	43
May 19	48	43
May eighteen	49	44
May 17	49	44
May 16	49	44
May xv	49	44
May 14	49	43
May 14	49	43
May 13	48	43
May 12	47	43
May eleven	48	43
May 10	48	43
May 09	47	42
May 08	48	42
May 07	48	42
May 06	48	42
May 05	48	42
May 04	48	42
May 03	47	42
May 02	48	42
May 01	48	42
April 30	48	42
April 29	48	42
Apr 28	48	42
April 28	48	42
Apr 27	49	42
Apr 26	49	42
April 25	49	42
Apr 24	48	42
Apr 23	48	42
Apr 22	48	42
Apr 21	48	42
Apr 20	48	43
Apr xix	49	43
April 18	49	43
Apr 17	49	42
April xvi	49	42
Apr xv	48	42
Apr fourteen	48	42
Apr thirteen	48	42
Apr 12	48	42
Apr 11	48	42
Apr 10	48	42
Apr 09	48	42
April 08	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
Apr 07	48	42
April 07	48	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 06	49	42
Apr 05	48	43
Apr 04	48	43
April 03	48	43
Apr 02	48	43
Apr 01	49	44
Mar 31	49	45
Mar 30	49	45
Mar 29	49	45
Mar 28	49	45
Mar 27	49	45
Mar 26	49	45
Mar 25	49	44
Mar 24	49	43
Mar 24	49	43
Mar 23	50	44
Mar 22	l	44
Mar 21	52	42
Mar xx	52	43
Mar 19	52	43
Mar 18	52	42
Mar 17	52	42
Mar 16	52	43
Mar 15	52	43
Mar xiv	52	43
Mar 13	52	43
Mar 12	52	43
Mar 11	51	43
Mar 10	50	43
Mar 09	51	42
Mar 08	51	42
Mar 07	l	43
Mar 06	49	45
Mar 05	49	45
Mar 04	49	45
Mar 03	49	45
Mar 02	49	45
Mar 01	50	45
Feb 29	50	45
February 28	50	45
Feb 27	50	44
Feb 26	50	45
February 25	50	45
February 24	fifty	45
Feb 23	50	45
Feb 22	50	45
Feb 21	50	44
Feb 20	50	44
February 19	l	44
Feb 18	50	44
Feb 17	51	44
Feb 17	51	44
Feb 16	50	44
Feb 15	l	43
Feb xiv	50	43
Feb 13	l	43
Feb 12	l	46
Feb eleven	50	44
Feb 10	50	44
Feb 09	50	44
Feb 08	49	44
Feb 07	49	44
Feb 06	49	44
Feb 05	50	46
Feb 04	50	45
Feb 03	50	45
Feb 02	50	45
Feb 01	l	44
Jan 31	50	44
Jan 30	50	44
January 29	50	44
Jan 28	50	44
Jan 27	l	45
Jan 26	fifty	45
Jan 25	50	45
Jan 24	50	46
Jan 23	50	46
Jan 23	50	46
Jan 22	50	44
Jan 21	51	45
Jan 20	51	45
January nineteen	51	45
January 18	48	46
Jan 17	48	46
January 16	48	46
Jan xv	48	46
January 14	48	46
Jan 13	48	46
Jan 12	48	46
Jan 11	48	46

30 days until Election twenty-four hour period

The BBC poll of polls looks at the individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the ready of numbers.

Run into individual polls

By contrast, in 2022 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his rival in the days before the election.

More than on US Election 2020

Which states volition decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you lot win is less important than where you lot win them.

Almost states most ever vote the aforementioned mode, significant that in reality there are just a scattering of states where both candidates stand a hazard of winning. These are the places where the election volition be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

In the electoral higher arrangement the Us uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress - House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates frequently spend a lot more time campaigning in them.

Who's leading in the battleground states?

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Mr Biden - although the margins take tightened in recent days.

He appears to be ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - three industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch victory in 2016.

Latest polling averages in battleground states

Scroll tabular array to see more than data

Click a column header to sort the table by that column in ascending or descending gild

Arizona	47.9%	47.0%	Trump by 3.6%
Florida	47.9%	47.0%	Trump past 1.2%
Georgia	47.2%	48.2%	Trump by 5.ii%
Iowa	45.6%	47.6%	Trump by 9.v%
Michigan	50.0%	45.viii%	Trump by 0.2%
Minnesota	48.0%	43.7%	Clinton past 1.5%
Nevada	48.7%	46.3%	Clinton by 2.iv%
New Hampshire	53.4%	42.iv%	Clinton by 0.iv%
Northward Carolina	47.vi%	47.8%	Trump past 3.vii%
Ohio	46.3%	47.3%	Trump by eight.2%
Pennsylvania	48.7%	47.5%	Trump by 0.7%
Texas	46.5%	47.viii%	Trump by 9.one%
Virginia	51.7%	40.3%	Clinton by 5.iv%
Wisconsin	51.0%	44.three%	Trump past 0.8%

Please update your browser to run into full interactive

Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: three Nov

For Mr Trump, information technology's the battleground states he won big in 2022 that his campaign squad will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% back then but information technology looks much closer in all iii this time.

That'due south one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-election as depression as things stand up.

The Economist thinks Mr Biden is "very likely" to beat Mr Trump while FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, sees Mr Biden every bit "favoured" to win the ballot but says the president could still come out on top.

Who won the presidential debates?

Epitome source, Getty Images

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-caput in 2 live Television set debates.

The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump's combative approach stamping out whatsoever chance of a real contend.

A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.

Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump - a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly lxx% of people said the debate made them feel "annoyed".

In the second argue, on 22 Oct, organisers introduced a mute button to help constabulary the arguments.

Just it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and in that location was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.

While that seemed to aid Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls withal suggested viewers idea Mr Biden's performance was more than impressive.

A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a amend job in the contend, while 39% went with Mr Trump.

A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.

And then while Mr Trump put in a better operation, information technology's unlikely to have been plenty to change the rest of the race on its own.

Has Covid-19 afflicted Trump'south numbers?

We but had a couple of days to mull over the beginning contend before President Trump'south bombshell tweet in the early hours of 2 October revealed he and the showtime lady had tested positive for coronavirus.

While the pandemic has dominated headlines in the U.s. since the start of the year, the focus had shifted to the Supreme Court subsequently the death of long-serving Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.

So Mr Trump's positive coronavirus test put his response to the pandemic, which has claimed the lives of more than 230,000 people in the U.s.a., back under the spotlight.

According to information from an ABC News/Ipsos poll, just 35% of Americans approve of how the president has handled the crisis. That figure climbs amidst Republicans, only only to 76%.

On his own health, 72% of respondents said that Mr Trump did non take the "risk of contracting the virus seriously enough," while the same number said he failed to take "the advisable precautions when it came to his personal health".

A similar Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that almost one-half of respondents believed he could have avoided contracting the disease altogether if he had practised greater social distancing and worn a confront mask.

Can nosotros trust the polls?

Media explanation,

Can we believe the polls this time?

It's easy to dismiss the polls by proverb they got it wrong in 2022 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. Only information technology'due south non entirely true.

Most national polls did accept Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn't mean they were wrong, since she won three million more than votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some bug in 2022 - notably a failure to properly stand for voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies take corrected this now.

But this year there'south even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it's having on both the economic system and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.

What questions do yous have about the US election?

The US ballot process can be disruptive. The BBC is hither to help make sense of it. Please put your questions below.

If yous can't see the form, you lot may need to view the site on a desktop.

In some cases, your question will be published, displaying your proper name, age and location equally you lot provide it, unless you country otherwise. Your contact details will never be published. Please ensure you have read our terms & conditions and privacy policy.

Written and produced by Mike Hills and Will Dahlgreen. Design past Irene de la Torre Arenas. Evolution past Katie Hassell, Marcos Gurgel, Steven Connor and Shilpa Saraf.

More on this story

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Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

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